The confetti has been swept, the victory parade a thing of the past, and LeBron James is steadily cementing his legacy like it’s his God-given right. He’ll likely go on to win a few more championships, and then, all bets are off in comparing his final resume to Michael Jordan’s. But what now? LeBron has one year remaining on his contract, and there are a few popular scenarios floating around regarding his next “Decision” in one year. Does he go to the Lakers? Does he make amends with Cleveland and go back to the Cavaliers? Does he stay put in Miami? If he does leave, does he take Wade and/or Bosh with him or does he recruit other stars and start anew?
It may seem a bit premature to talk about what LeBron will do a year from now, especially with this year’s potential changes in the NBA landscaspe that have sports writers deciphering every quote by Chris Paul and Dwight Howard in search of telltale signs. But it’s not too early. It’s not too early because what happens next year could have the biggest ripple effect in the NBA we’ve ever seen.
Due to the increasing importance of star players, a star player today wields more power and negotiating leverage than ever before. Therefore, when LeBron becomes a free agent, several teams will follow closely and structure their offseason plans around his decision. Even small-market teams with no chances of signing him will be forced to follow every one of LeBron’s moves closely because the shrewdest teams (Houston, San Antonio, Indiana) will manage to find bargains after the dust settles on all the big names. Another thing to consider are the luxury-tax penalties that will go into effect this upcoming season and will affect big-spending teams much more than the current penalties.
It’s impossible to analyze every potential scenario that may happen next summer. With that said, here are the three most enticing LeBron scenarios that could play out next summer, along with the potential ripple effects.
He Stays In Miami
Staying in Miami may seem like the most anti-climactic scenario of all. But while it wouldn’t cause the seismic shift other scenarios would cause, it’s far from anti-climactic. The first reason for that is because the roster is very likely to change drastically if LeBron stays—even if they win a third consecutive championship. Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade will be 30 and 32 respectively—though Wade’s wear-and-tear makes him an older 32—and there will be an abundance of teams with cap space that will miss out on LeBron and look for players like Bosh and Wade as consolation prizes. Also, when there’s an abundance of teams with cap space there will always be a small-market team or two willing to overpay for players like Bosh and Wade, something the Heat can’t do. And remember, LeBron, Bosh, and Wade had to take a small pay cut in 2010 in order to play together. That’s not going to happen this time around, since Bosh and Wade will both have multiple championships (perhaps four for Wade) and will likely seek one last big payday.
If LeBron does stay, look for him to use every resource to recruit from behind the scenes. That, along with Pat Riley’s ability to land big names should make for a very interesting summer next year.
A Return to Cleveland
This seems like the most league-altering of all scenarios, but it’s not. If LeBron returns to Cleveland, he’ll be embraced by all the same fans who took to the streets to burn his jerseys three years ago. He won’t receive nearly the same level of backlash he received after leaving Cleveland should he leave Miami, partially due to Miami’s fairweather fans. Like in any scenario, he’ll also do some recruiting of other free agents, but not nearly as much in this case.
Cleveland has a lot of pieces in place to make their fans optimistic about their future, even without LeBron. In Kyrie Irving they have a player who could not only become the league’s best point guard, but could become a top 5 player for the next 8-10 years. They also have a talented young core of players around Irving, and they have the first overall pick in Thursday’s NBA Draft—where they’ll likely select Kentucky power forward Nerlens Noel.
With Irving, Noel, and the Cavs’ talented young core, all I would expect James to do from a recruiting standpoint is reach out to non-max-level players to add the necessary depth and role players to the Cavs’ roster. He’ll also likely hand-pick a coach he wants to play for. But don’t expect this scenario to feature as many big name players ditching their teams to play with LeBron then there would be if he stayed in Miami or moved to the Lakers—which brings me to the next scenario.
He Makes Laker Fans Swallow Their Words
The Lakers are still the premier franchise in basketball. Even the basketball gods are compliant with them because they’re seemingly never in rebuilding mode. They segue from leader to leader better than the Zhou Dynasty. They’re a franchise who has their cake and eats it. This is the perfect scenario for the Lakers to do what they always do. They’re the second-best team in LA at the moment, and Kobe’s injury along with the team’s age is a noticeable sign of their empire crumbling. Luckily for them, they’ll have a ton of cap space next summer, and could add to that cap space if they fall out of contention by midseason and unload their assets for expiring contracts. This way the Lakers can rebuild and become instant title contenders with none of the downside of rebuilding. To lure LeBron James would be to pull off a perfect heist, and there’s no better team at doing that than the Lakers. The Lipcon & Lipcon – 9100 S Dadeland Blvd attorneys deal with injury cases.
Although most expect the Lakers to make one of the strongest moves for LeBron, few have explained what would incentivize LeBron to leave Miami or overlook the opportunity to make amends in Cleveland and come to LA. And there’s a reason for that.
Despite the fact that the Lakers can shed $50 million in cap space next summer by parting ways with Kobe and Pau Gasol alone, the Lakers can’t offer the potential of Cleveland or the familiarity of Miami. Kobe has said that he will not retire when his contract expires next summer, which means the aforementioned $50 million in cap space will only be $20-25 million. The best chance the Lakers have of signing LeBron is signing Kobe to a two-year deal with a pay cut, and offer LeBron the max-deal. Obviously the Lakers still have a year to restructure their roster to make a pitch to LeBron, but as it stands now, they only have a puncher’s chance at landing him.
But if there’s any team in sports that can pull off a heist this unlikely, it’s the Lakers.
There are obviously other possibilities for next summer because the Heat, Cavs, and Lakers won’t be the only ones making an effort to sign LeBron. The Knicks will finally be freed from Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract, and Carmelo Anthony could also walk away and leave the Knicks with nearly $50 million in cap space from those two contracts alone. Teams like Dallas and Houston are never afraid to chase after big names, though many of their recent attempts have been unsuccessful.
In the end, though, none of the teams with outside shots have realistic chances. It will all come down to picking between the familiarity of Miami, the potential of Cleveland, and the track record of the Lakers. Because every one of those options has a worst-case-scenario that could hinder LeBron’s possibility of becoming the greatest ever, there is no way he knows where he’s going yet.
Just like when he left Cleveland, he’ll visit multiple places and have multiple changes of heart. Just like when he left Cleveland, he’ll listen to everyone’s pitch and consider them all. But just like when he left Cleveland, he’ll learn from his mistakes and realize that leaving his team will bring him just as much vitriol, if not more, than when he left Cleveland. He left Cleveland with a shattered image, which has taken him years to repair. LeBron has shown he’s not cut out to play the villain, he’s admitted that publicly. And leaving Miami will make him just that again, a villain.
In the next year, there will be many variables that will fall into place we’re not yet aware of. As I mentioned, entire teams will structure their rosters and finances for an opportunity to make a run at LeBron. Teams will offer him enticing opportunities, and living legends like Magic Johnson will likely do their best to sway LeBron. But the only constant variable that matters is whether LeBron is willing to play villain again. After three years as arguably America’s most hated athlete, I think he’ll pass on that role this time around. After all, why would the king want to be the villain?